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In 2012, a Chinese crackdown on corruption caused purchases of premium cognac and other high end goods used as gifts to fall sharply, taking the likes of LVMH and Rmy Cointreau shares down with them.This time, tariffs threaten consumers’ spending power in both the United States and China the world’s two biggest consumers of European luxury goods, which make up just over half the industry’s revenues.The impact on confidence in China’s markets, including the depreciation of the renminbi that would eat into Chinese tourists’ budgets for shopping in Europe, is among risks that may not be fully reflected in stocks yet, analysts warn.”We see very little priced in so far,” said UBS analysts, who forecast as much as a 30 per cent share price drop in the sector index in the event of a fully fledged trade war.Among the stocks that would be worse affected, UBS included Italy’s Salvatore Ferragamo and Britain’s Burberry . The two brands are in the midst of turnaround plans that have yet to fully hit their stride.Story continues below advertisementCHINA THRIVING So far, the knock on effect on revenues has been muted.If anything, Chinese demand for Louis Vuitton’s leather goods ticked up in the second quarter compared to the first, LVMH reported, while most firms argue their core clientele is here to stay.”We have still an expansion of the middle and upper class in China,” Kering’s group managing director Jean Francois Palus told analysts following the company’s half year results.Sales in China have been largely driven by a young clientele unafraid of splurging on branded goods, and often financed by their parents and grandparents, with rising property prices also providing a source of wealth.Even a moderate slowdown in the pace of revenue growth, as is expected regardless of the trade spat after two years of rebounding demand in China, is not enough to spook some drawn to the sector’s underlying strengths.”Demand is really healthy,” said Andrea Gerst, co portfolio manager of GAM’s Luxury brands fund, which has stakes in many major European labels. “If comparatives get more difficult, then the absolute madness may not be as strong, but there’ll still be healthy growth.”Story continues below advertisementMore broadly, global luxury sales are driven by some of the world’s wealthiest shoppers who might shrug off any direct impact from tariffs were it to come to that.”With luxury you’ve got people who are far less price sensitive as your customers and so you ask yourself if there’s a tax put on and the price goes up a bit, how much is that really going to change the demand?” said Fergus Shaw, partner and portfolio manager at Cerno Capital.Shaw said his fund owns LVMH shares, and he has not been tempted to sell out, expecting any impact from tariffs to be much smaller than the anti corruption drive was..