There are some areas of statistics which seem to attract controversy and disagreement, and causal modelling is certainly one of them. In an attempt to understand what all the fuss is about, I asked Judea Pearl about these differences in perspective. Pearl is a world leader in the scientific understanding of causality.
As the fighting wanes, men in ski masks bang on the door of Marjorie’s two storey home. Inside, Marjorie, a tall, graceful woman, gathers her family around her. Her two sons, Fabian, 20, and Fernando, 18, move to her side. Photograph: Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty ImagesThe Kent variant of the coronavirus with a key mutation that enables the South African variant to escape some of the vaccines used against it must be taken very seriously in the UK, according to a leading microbiologist.Prof Ravi Gupta of the Cambridge Institute for Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Diseases, who is a member of the government’s scientific advisory body Nervtag, warned that the mutated variant, at the moment causing just 21 known cases, should be treated with as much concern as the South African variant.The Kent variant B117, which spreads twice as fast as the original coronavirus, is now dominant in the UK and is present in many countries around the world. But Public Health England has identified 21 cases of B117 that also have the E484K mutation: 14 in the Bristol region, four in Greater Manchester and three elsewhere. E484K is the change to the spike protein in South Africa that scientists believe is chiefly responsible for vaccines triggering a lower antibody response to infection.Nervtag (new and emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group), which is part of the UK Sage committee of scientists, has designated this a “variant of concern”.This key mutation that had now arisen in the UK has been shown to reduce the efficacy of antibodies in many lab studies, said Gupta.
On Sunday, NLD party spokesperson Kyi Toe told reporters that Aung San Suu Kyi, who so far faces prosecution for the bizarre charge of importing walkie talkies and is being held against her will in Naypyidaw, was in good health and received her first coronavirus vaccination. The novel coronavirus has killed 2.3 million people and turned normal life upside down for billions but new variants of the virus have raised fears that vaccines will need to be tweaked and people may have to have booster shots. Bets on firms like Doordash saw the firm smash analyst forecasts.
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